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Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000. The pathways are used for climate modeling and research. They describe four possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5, are named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively). ==Emissions== The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic (i.e., human) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.〔 Collins, M., ''et al.'': Section 12.3.1.3 The New Concentration Driven RCP Scenarios, and their Extensions, in: (Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility ) (archived (16 July 2014 )), in: 〕 RCP 2.6 assumes that global annual GHG emissions (measured in -equivalents) peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining substantially thereafter.〔 Figure 2, in 〕 Emissions in RCP 4.5 peak around 2040, then decline.〔 In RCP 6, emissions peak around 2080, then decline.〔 In RCP 8.5, emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.〔 The four RCPs are consistent with certain socio-economic assumptions but are to be substituted with the Shared Socio-economic Pathways which are anticipated to provide flexible descriptions of possible futures within each RCP. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)』 ■ウィキペディアで「Representative Concentration Pathways」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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